Pogacar takes risk with low level approach at Tour of Slovenia

Tadej Pogacar chooses a low level approach to the Tour de France at Tour of Slovenia.

Tour of Slovenia 2022 – 28th Edition – 3rd stage Zalec – Celje 144,6 km – 17/06/2022 – Tadej Pogacar (SLO – UAE Team Emirates) – photo Tommaso Pelagalli/SprintCyclingAgency©2022

Every rider that participates in the Tour de France participates in a preparation race. These preparation races are a few weeks out from the Tour de France. These races allow the riders to gain more fitness as the competition always push riders beyond their own training limits. At the same time, preparation races allow the teams to make the final selection for their Tour de France rosters. Historically, riders use the Criterium Dauphine, and the Tour de Suisse for prep. It’s at these races that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing a glimpse of head to head battles that may shake out at the Tour de France. 

This year, we saw an incredible display of fitness, and team tactics from Jumbo Visma in what was a high level field at the criterium dauphine. Team JV took 1/2 in the general classification with their team leader Primoz Roglic taking the overall win, and their co-leader and second place finisher in the 2021 Tour de France, Jonas Vingegaard take second overall. The reason this performance was so impressive was because of the depth of the field in the criterium dauphine where they had to battle against many of the top riders in the world.

The Tour de Suisse is known to be the highest level preparation race for the Tour de France. The TDS level of racing is similar to the TDF, and so is the terrain. What is unique about the Tour de France in comparison to the Giro d’italia or the Vuelta Espana, is that the climbs are not as steep and this makes the tactics that have the greatest effect unique for the Tour. These things can be practiced at the Tour de Suisse as a very real simulation for what’s to come at the Tour de France.

All of this makes Tadej Pogacar’s preparation at the Tour of Slovenia unique. The Tour of Slovenia in comparison to the other preparation race options is extremely low level. The race itself had a hard time filing the field with high level teams, and had no choice but to fill the race with bottom feeder continental teams who will ultimately take any race that gives them the ability to compete against the big names. Not only is the risk of crashing much greater in a lower level field, but the field simply won’t push the top riders as hard as the other race options.

Perhaps Pogacar wan’t to practice winning as the team easily dominates the race, but that’s also a tough theory to believe because Pogacar has dominated all year so far. Maybe the strategy is a lighter load approach to the Tour de reduce fatigue. This also seems like a bit of a stretch because the race finishes with plenty of time to recover ahead of the Tour. The only thing that we can possibly put together is that Pogacar and the UAE team have some type of deal which usually involves a monetary incentive for the rider and team to attend the race.

The question that stands out is; Will this low level approach negatively effect Pogacar at the Tour? The old school answer would be yes, absolutely. Historically riders who compete and prepare at a lower level perform at a lower level.  However then wild card  is Pogacar’s miraculous performances in the past 2 years that have defied modern cycling’s laws of what’s humanly possible. The 2 time Tour de France winner has been able to pull off the impossible in the past 2 years. But will that change in 2022?

All signs point towards yes. With Pogacar’s early season form like we’ve never seen it, and a relatively conservative approach to the Tour, it would seem likely that Jumbo Visma and Ineos have their shot at dethroning the Pog in 2022.

Stay tuned for more updates as we unpack the Tour de France as it approaches. 

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