Is Remco Evenepoel really the favorite for the Vuelta?

Ahead of the Vuelta Espana The Bookies had Remco as the favorite, but did they get it wrong?

We think the bookies and odds people made a mistake on this one, and still consider Remco an underdog for the 2022 Vuelta Espana. While the 22 year old has done nothing but continue to wow the world with incredible performance after incredible performance, Remco still hasn’t done it in a grand tour, and he’s up against some guys that have.

Primoz Roglic and Richard Carapaz, have both proven themselves as grand tour winners, and are our favorites to win the race, but the competition isn’t the only barrier for Remco. In the past, we’ve Quickstep-Alpa Vinyl and Remco but heads in a grand tour. Last year, it was Joao Almeida, and Remco Evenpoel who ended up competing against each other in the Vuelta. In fact, it was Joao Alemdia, Remco’s own team mate who was taking pulls during a crucial gravel section, that ended up gapping Remco, causing him to lose big time on the stage, and eventually withdraw from the race.

Rival teams like Ineos, and Jumbo look super organized and focused on executing a dynamic strategy that will make it difficult for quickstep to respond to. It’s clear that Ineos has two potential options in Richard Carapaz, and Pavel Sivokov. Sivo has shown us that he’s on some wicked form at the moment, and he’s not one to count out. Remember, Carapaz likely has a bone to pick with Roglic having come SO close to winning the overall at the Vuelta in 2020, falling just 24 seconds short of the win after 3 weeks of racing.

It’s clear that Jumbo is all in on Roglic, and so they should be as the Slovenian is the clear favorite having already won the Vuelta three times. Roglic is on phenomenal form after a rest period post Tour de France. We also can’t forget to mention the 2022 Giro d’Italia winner Jai Hindley who’s proven himself as a top grand tour contender this year. Hindley will race at the front, and we’re expecting to see him on the podium at the end of the Vuelta.

There’s no doubt in anyones mind that Remco is one of the best one day riders in the world, but there is still some doubt around whether he can ride a 21 day race. If he does have the legs for a 3 week throw down, the Vuelta suits him pretty well with 3 time trials. Remco could put time into all of his competitors in a time trial at the Vuelta, but how much time? As we’ve seen in all the grand tours, the time gaps tend to decrease between favorites in a grand tour as fatigue, and fitness tends to balance things out and make performances closer at the top level.

The first 5 stages showed us that Remco is focused, he’s racing at the front, but Quickstep isn’t all in on him. They’re sending riders that could be saving their energy to support Remco later on in breakaways, burning energy and potentially risking their chances later on. Alaphilippe is there to support, but his form is a little bit questionable at the moment as we haven’t seen the world champion compete since his horrible crash this spring.

The Bottom Line

Remco’s proven that he can win one day races, but not yet in Grand Tours, and Quickstep Alpha Vinyl doesn’t look like a team that is going to win a Grand Tour this year. If Remco’s going to win the Vuelta it’s going to come down to great recovery, and some incredible individual efforts. It’s never a good idea to count one of the wonder boys out, so we’re not saying Remco can’t do it, but what we are saying is that there are some stacked odds against him at the moment.

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