Analysis of the top Favorites for the 2022 World Championship Road race in Wollongong Australia with Pro Tour Cycling.
It’s time for the most important road race of the year again, World Championships. The 2022 edition of the race from starts in Helensburgh and ends on a 12 lap 17.21km circuit around Wollongong Australia. The profile features a longer longer 7.5km climb up Mt Keira that finishes 227km away from the finish before heading to the circuits, which hosts a punch circuit including a 1.1k, 8.8% avg gradient climb up Mt. Pleasant.
Because of Mt Keira’s distance from the finish line, it’s likely that the big teams will work for the group to come back together for the favorites on the finishing circuit. Like every world championship race, there are a lot of variables that come into play when we look at the favorites ahead of the race. Because of the distance, and amount of climbing in this years edition, the winner will not only need the fitness and skillset to perform, but also the team to support such an effort.
Now let’s take a look the course.
Race Distance: 267.9KM
Climbing: 4093M
The Course
The 267.9km course may not look so challenging when you look at it at this scale spread out, but don’t be fooled. The distance in combination with over 4000m of climbing will be a challenge fit for only the very top riders in the world, at their absolute best. The course will in itself be making selection, and thinning down the peloton kilometer by kilometer. The bigger teams will know this, and they’ll likely try to keep the race and smooth as possible for their favorites.
Mt Keira
At over 7.5km in length the Mt Keira climb will definitely play it’s role in the overall result of the race, but maybe not right away. We’ll likely see the favorites of the race stay together on this climb, however in the finale the riders will be feeling the earlier effort on the climb, even if it is ridden at. controlled pace.
Selective Circuit Section
This 2km section of the circuit in Wollongong will likely be where the race is decided. With pitches on the climb over 18% this section will take a big toll over the course of 12 laps of of racing the circuit. The riders that make the final selection in the 2022 world championships will most definitely have to possess a certain set of skills and abilities.
Key Rider Characteristics
- Great Muscular Endurance: Riders who make the final selection will have to possess incredible muscular endurance because the super steep sections on the circuit will force riders to dig deep into their muscles, lap after lap to match pace and cover attacks.
- Dynamic Cadence Range: Being efficient throughout the day will be essential, and riders will have to be ninja’s in transitioning between muscular system, and cardio vascular system dominance throughout the entire day. Being able to ride the bigger gears when things are relaxed, and execute clean spin ups to close gaps, or match pace during accelerations will set the top guys apart at the end of the race.
- Strong Explosive Power: There’s no doubt that this race will host some of the most explosive attacks of the year that will likely shatter the group apart. Being able to go on the attack, or match the pace of attacks will be an essential component of making the first group.
- A Well Trained Stomach: Most races in professional cycling are around 180-200km in length. Adding an extra 70km to an already long race is a massive difference. Riders who are going to have energy at the end of a long affair like this will have to be fueling a ton throughout the entire day. The top riders will likely be consuming somewhere around a minimum of 80g rams of carbohydrates per hour all the way up to 180grams of carbs per hour depending on their physiology.
- The Right Mindset: This race will push riders to their absolute limit physically and mentally. The rider that wins the 2022 World Championship road race will have to be smart all day, but extremely hungry in the finale. There will be no gifts at the 2022 World Championship race.
The Favorites For World Championships 2022
#11: Magnus Sheffield
Breakdown
Riding his first Elite world championships this year, Magnus Sheffield has proven in his debut season that he can not only perform at the top level of sport but that he can win. The 20 year old raced at the front of the peloton during the spring classics before taking a win at De Brabantse Pijl. It’s likely that the US team will ride in support of Sheffield, and although small the team has some strong support riders. If the Americans go into the race, 100% riding in support of Sheffield, then he has a chance to be up there in the finale.
Pros
- Great Explosive Ability
- Good Muscular Endurance
- Aggressive in style
- Well suited for Worlds Course
- Underdog and may be underestimated in the finale
Cons
- Smaller team
- Unlikely to have 100% commitment from the team
- Not the strongest sprinter
- Less experience than other favorites
#10: Fred Wright
Breakdown
Fred Wright is a rider that has proven in 2022 that he can race at the front end of hard races. Riding for Great Britain, Fred will likely be in a co leadership position along side Ethan Hayter, however we see Fred Wright as the rider that will make the selection in the final. Given the nature of the parkour, it’s possible for somebody like Fred to sneak away in the finale, or win from a small group.
Pros
- Great Muscular Endurance
- Consistently makes the selection
- Does well on hard days
- Riding a strong wave of momentum
Cons
- Doesn’t have the best sprint finish ability
- May not have the most dedicated support around him
- Hasn’t shown in one day classics
#9 Alexander Kristoff
Breakdown
The Viking is one of those riders that you can never count out in a race like this. At what is probably the tail end of his professional career, Kristoff is highly motivated to finally take the rainbow stripes. Having coming close in the past and in what may be some of the best shape we’ve ever seen Kristoff, we think the viking definitely has a shot to make the selection in the final, and maybe even win from a small group if things go right.
Pros
- Great Muscular Endurance
- Top of classic explosive power
- Strong at the end of a long race
- Has been on the podium at worlds before
- May be underestimated in the finale
Cons
- Smaller Team
- Less aggressive than some of the rivals
- Has the tendency to miss important moves
#8: Christophe Laporte
Breakdown
After transferring from Cofidis to Jumbo Visma in 2022, Laporte has had the season of his life and is potentially the most improved rider on of the season. Laporte has proven that he is extremely versatile in his skillset this season and we expect him to be a the front end of the race as things get going. We expect that Laporte will likely be a co-leader of the French team alongside the 2x reigning world champion Julian Alaphilippe.
Pros
- Versatile abilities
- On a hot streak
- Great finish
- Ability to make the selection in hard races
Cons
- May be in the shadow of Alaphilippe
- There are a lot of egos on the French team so Laporte may not have 100% support
#7: Biniam Girmay
Breakdown
Girmay has been the talk of the town all year, and for good reason. Not only has he proven himself as one of the time riders in the world in punchy bunch finishes but he’s also been a part of making history as the first black rider to win a world tour race. Girmay took 2nd place in the u23 World Championships last year, so he’s no stranger to pressure in world championship environment. The main struggle for Girmay will be the depth of strength in is team, as he’ll likely be completely isolated in the finale.
Pros
- Great explosive ability
- Good muscular endurance
- Proven ability to perform at worlds
- strong finish
Cons
- Weak Team
- Tends to be the shadow of MVDP or other favorites instead of racing his own race
- May not have the threshold abilities to close gaps, and survive the finale of an Elite level world championship race
#6: Michael Matthews
Breakdown
Michael Matthews has been at this professional cycling game since 2009, and he may be in the best shape of his life. Racing the worlds on home soil will mean the world to Bling, and it looks like the Australia team is 100% behind him. With the Australian federating having made the decision to leave Caleb Ewan off the roster, the amount of pressure on the shoulders of Matthews is high, but he may have the team to back him up. What is particularly interesting about Bling’s position in the race is that the is one of maybe 2 riders who will undoubtedly have the support of his entire team. With a recent podium in the Quebec race, and a respectable 13 in the race in Montreal, Matthews is on form and if everything goes right for him he’ll be in the finale on home turf.
Pros
- Top of class explosive power
- Proven 1 day classic winner
- Home soil advantage
- Support of the entire team
- Top of class sprint finish
- Can win in a variety of ways
- Strong supporting team
Cons
- Tends to often miss key moves
- Might lack the leadership skills to lead the team to position him
- Will be heavily marked
#5 Wout Van Aert
Breakdown
Is there anything Wout Van Aert can’t do? That’s the question every commentator makes when watching Wout race a bike. The 27 year old Belgian is absolutely in the prime of his career and has had a phenomenal season in 2022. You may be surprised to see Wout at #5 on our list so we’ll explain why. Now there is no counting Wout Van Aert out from winning the world title by any measure. Currently ranked as the #2 rider in then world, Wout has been dominant and consistent all season. However in his last 3 out of 4 reduced bunch sprints he’s been beaten. With a high probability of Worlds coming down to a reduced bunch, we think some other riders may have Wout’s number. A big advantage for Wout however is that he has Remco Evenepoel to work with, and an incredibly strong team to support.
Pros
- Extremely Versatile skillset
- Fast sprint finish
- Ability to consistently make the selection
- Agressive in finals
- Can go solo or take it to the line with a group
- Has a super strong team
Cons
- May be in a bit of a slump at the moment with reduced group finishes
- Has had a bit of conflict with Remco in a co-leadership position in the past
- Often gets caught up in Wout vs MVDP battle
#4: Julian Alaphilippe
Breakdown
It hasn’t been an easy season for the reigning 2x World Champion, Julian Alaphilippe. Coming off of a crash at the Vuelta Espana that forced Alaphilippe to abandon the race, his form is unknown. There’s no counting Lulu out when it comes to a world championship race like this and we expect Julian to be a part of the finale. The frenchman wouldn’t be traveling all the way to Australia to defend his title if he legitimately didn’t think that he’d be able to win the race. However, given the unknown for Alaphilippe, and the lack of results this season, we’ve got Alaphilippe at #4 on our list.
Pros
- Is a 2x World championship winner
- Extremely aggressive racing style
- Top of class Explosive power
- Incredible natural racing instinct in the peloton
- Strong French Team
Cons
- Form unknown after Vuelta Crash
- Has not had a great season to date
- Will be heavily marked in the finale
#3: Tadej Pogacar
Breakdown
Tadej Pogacar has been on a terror in 2022. Despite being de-throned by Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France this year, Pogacar is the #1 ranked rider in the world, and recently picked up a big win over Wout Van Aert at the world tour race in Montreal. Tadej Pogacar has proven that he can win one day classics, and we expect Pog to be a massive part of the finale in Australia. Pog will be looking to follow and go solo, or take his chances in a very reduced bunch sprint.
Pros
- Extremely dynamic skillset
- Top of class explosive attacking abilities
- Strong sprint finish
- Can ride the threshold wave with the best riders in the world
- Riding a ton of confidence from win in Montreal
Cons
- Weaker team
- Will likely be isolated in the finale
#2: Remco Evenepoel
Breakdown
Fresh off his first overall win at the Vuelta Espana, Remco Evenepoel makes his way into 2nd on our list of favorites. The 22 year old Belgian has already won a monument this year, and his form has only gotten better. Remco Evenepoel is a force not to be played with and with the support of the Belgian team he’s going to be a big part of the world championship road race. Remco’s skillset will give teammate Wout Van Aert the ability to let others chase him as he’ll likely go on the attack from distance. We’re not sure just how tired Remco is after the Vuelta, but if he’s feeling up for it, he’s definitely one of the top guys in the race.
Pros
- Versatile skillset
- Can attack from distance
- Can follow attacks from all ranges
- Ability to set crushing pace
- Incredibly strong team
- Has Wout Van Aert work with
Cons
- Post Vuelta condition unknown
- Will be heavily marked
- Co leadership was tough to manage for the Belgians
#1: Mathieu Van Der Poel
Breakdown
When MVDP is on the top of his game he seams unbeatable. Coming off of 3 wins in a row it looks like Van Der Poel is in that type of unbeatable groove, and with the dedicated support of the Netherlands squad behind him we think MVDP is the out and out favorite to win the 2022 World Championships in Wollongong Australia. He’s extremely consistent out of small bunch sprints, and almost always makes the selection. We expect Van Der Poel to let his team control the race, and to have team mates very close to the closing moments of the contest.
Pros
- Top of class explosive ability to attack
- Top of class finishing ability in reduced bunch sprints
- Aggressive racing style
- On a hot streak with 3 consecutive wins
- Extremely strong team to support
- Sole leadership on team
Cons
- Will be heavily marked in finale
- Has had the tendency to over work in breakaways in the past
Summary
In the end the 2022 World Road Cycling championships is set to be the showdown of the year. Whoever comes out on top will be a deserving rider.
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